WR · CIN
Tee Higgins
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 82.7 |
| Matchup | −2.7 |
| Weather | +0.6 |
| Coach / team | −2.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +6.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 83.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 88.6 counts as 82.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: PIT allows 3% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −17% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +5% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 5% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Joe Burrow 7.5 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −35% in 10 without vs 24 with). Effect +7%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −41% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. PIT secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 56%, fair odds -129 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.88 |
| Matchup | −0.22 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.10 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.08 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.07 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.75 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: PIT allows 25% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −45% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +42% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 29% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 62% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Joe Burrow 6.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −32% in 10 without vs 24 with). Effect +11%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. PIT secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 32 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 155 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 148 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 157 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 95 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | TB | 0 | 0 | 59 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.