QB · CIN
Joe Burrow
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 288.4 |
| Matchup | +5.9 |
| Weather | +1.6 |
| Coach / team | −9.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +18.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 308.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 295.3 counts as 288.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: PIT allows 2% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +1% in 4 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 5% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 33), he was 14% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −10% in 7 without vs 26 with). Effect +1%. PIT secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 93%, fair odds -1366 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 3.11 |
| Matchup | −0.75 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.47 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.11 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.05 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 2.79 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 3.01 counts as 3.11. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: PIT allows 24% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −11% in 4 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 56% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 0% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 33), he was 10% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −28% in 7 without vs 26 with). Effect +2%. PIT secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 8.6 |
| Matchup | −0.9 |
| Weather | +0.3 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 14% less than average, so his raw 7.4 counts as 8.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: PIT allows 10% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −65% in 4 without vs 29 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 8% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 33), he was 27% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: PIT defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 38%, fair odds +164 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.33 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.05 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.37 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 17% more than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.33. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: PIT allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 29 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 29% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 33), he was 10% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: PIT defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | ATL | 271 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TEN | 462 | 10 | 0 | 6 |
| 2026 wk 7 | BAL | 292 | 12 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIA | 190 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 4 | JAX | 428 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | PIT | 282 | 13 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 2 | HOU | 207 | -1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | TB | 254 | 20 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.