WR · HOU
Nico Collins
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 59.8 |
| Matchup | −0.8 |
| Weather | +0.2 |
| Coach / team | +0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 61.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 62.3 counts as 59.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CLE allows 1% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +6% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 9% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: C.J. Stroud 7.3 yards per attempt vs Davis Mills 6.0, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +16% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +62% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 40%, fair odds +149 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.45 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | +0.02 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.09 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.53 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% more than average, so his raw 0.50 counts as 0.45. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 6% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 44% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: C.J. Stroud 4.3 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Davis Mills 2.9, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −29% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +8%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −57% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 55 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | JAX | 0 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 118 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | BUF | 0 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 (playoffs) | PIT | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.