RB · CAR
Chuba Hubbard
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 75.7 |
| Matchup | +9.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −6.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 77.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: NO allows 12% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 17% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 22 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. NO defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 18.8 |
| Matchup | +1.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −1.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 19.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 19.3 counts as 18.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NO allows 9% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 15% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 22 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −21% in 15 without vs 19 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. NO secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 62%, fair odds -163 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.74 |
| Matchup | +0.29 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.05 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.95 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.68 counts as 0.74. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NO allows 39% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 22 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. NO defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DEN | 0 | 79 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | GB | 0 | 81 | 38 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TB | 0 | 33 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | PHI | 0 | 120 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DET | 0 | 122 | 7 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CLE | 0 | 82 | 28 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | ATL | 0 | 53 | 11 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CHI | 0 | 49 | 38 | 2 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.