TE · KC
Noah Gray
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 22.0 |
| Matchup | −1.0 |
| Weather | +0.4 |
| Coach / team | −1.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 20.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 21.6 counts as 22.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 5% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −11% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −43% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 13% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 23% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Patrick Mahomes 7.2 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −47% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +5%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +33% in 23 without vs 11 with). Effect −9%. Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −24% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 10%, fair odds +942 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.10 |
| Matchup | −0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.08 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 35% more than average, so his raw 0.14 counts as 0.10. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 6% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +26% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 18% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 35% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Patrick Mahomes 4.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +9%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 23 without vs 11 with). Effect −27%. Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −49% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 53 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | LV | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | IND | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.