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TE · PIT

Pat Freiermuth

Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .

Receiving yards

Consistent vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games

3 6 3 2 1 1 102030405060708090
Type a line for his chance and fair odds.
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Bet a
Bet b
Factoryds
Statistics29.6
Matchup+8.0
Weather−1.6
Coach / team+1.0
Rest / bye−3.3
Game time+6.1
Injuries / lineup−3.1
News0
Projection36.8
Why these numbers
  • Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 29.9 counts as 29.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
  • Matchup: CIN allows 27% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
  • Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +25% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +45% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
  • Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 17% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
  • Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 50% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
  • Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 29% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
  • Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 6.6 yards per attempt vs Mason Rudolph 6.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −50% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +25% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect −11%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
  • News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.

Anytime touchdown

Moderate vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games

11 0 4 1 1 2 0 3+

Anytime touchdown: 21%, fair odds +368 (adjusted for this week)

FactorTD
Statistics0.33
Matchup−0.14
Weather+0.02
Coach / team+0.02
Rest / bye+0.01
Game time−0.02
Injuries / lineup+0.02
News0
Projection0.23
Why these numbers
  • Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% more than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.33. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
  • Matchup: CIN allows 43% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
  • Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +4%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −42% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
  • Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 50% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
  • Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 13% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
  • Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 21% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
  • Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 4.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Mason Rudolph 3.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +77% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −30% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect +7%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
  • News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.

Recent games

GameOppPassRushRecTD
2026 wk 8CLE 0135 1
2026 wk 7NO 0020 0
2026 wk 6TB 0011 0
2026 wk 5IND 0144 2
2026 wk 4CLE 0017 1
2026 wk 3CIN 0130 0
2026 wk 2NE 0232 0
2026 wk 1ATL 0046 1

Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.