RB · TB
Kenny Gainwell
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 31.6 |
| Matchup | −4.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.4 |
| Rest / bye | +1.2 |
| Game time | +1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 29.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 32.9 counts as 31.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DET allows 13% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 28% above in 2 games. This player: 35% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 7% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −24% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +2%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: −23% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect −10%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. DET defensive front: Jack Campbell (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jack Campbell: his team −30% in 1 games without him vs 24 with, 9.4 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 19.8 |
| Matchup | −1.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.4 |
| Rest / bye | −1.3 |
| Game time | −3.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 12.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 20.9 counts as 19.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DET allows 5% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% above in 2 games. This player: 62% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 25% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Baker Mayfield 7.3 yards per attempt vs Jalon Daniels 5.8, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −5% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +25% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect −11%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 7%, fair odds +1234 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.13 |
| Matchup | −0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | −0.01 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.06 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 14% more than average, so his raw 0.14 counts as 0.13. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DET allows 17% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% below in 2 games. This player: 100% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +13% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect −0%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: +150% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect −37%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. DET defensive front: Jack Campbell (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jack Campbell: his team −100% in 1 games without him vs 24 with, 9.4 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CHI | 0 | 16 | 60 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | ATL | 0 | 140 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CAR | 0 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | PIT | 0 | 17 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DAL | 0 | 18 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | GB | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIN | 0 | -4 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CLE | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.