TE · ATL
Kyle Pitts
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 42.8 |
| Matchup | +4.5 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −13.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 31.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 44.6 counts as 42.8. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: KC allows 11% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Michael Penix Jr. 7.2 yards per attempt vs Cooper Rush 6.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +48% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect −14%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −16%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 0 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 34%, fair odds +192 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.52 |
| Matchup | +0.08 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.07 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.47 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 0.50 counts as 0.52. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: KC allows 15% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 12% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Michael Penix Jr. 4.0 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Cooper Rush 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +13% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect −2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +80% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −9%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 0 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TB | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SF | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 60 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 42 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NO | 0 | 0 | 47 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | GB | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.