RB · PIT
Jaylen Warren
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 83.4 |
| Matchup | −2.4 |
| Weather | +4.9 |
| Coach / team | +3.8 |
| Rest / bye | +3.9 |
| Game time | −2.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 91.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 87.9 counts as 83.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 3% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −15% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −50% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +5%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 8% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 15% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 7% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −3% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 27.3 |
| Matchup | +0.2 |
| Weather | +1.7 |
| Coach / team | +0.7 |
| Rest / bye | −1.7 |
| Game time | −3.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 28.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 28.2 counts as 27.3. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CIN allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −43% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −25% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 17% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 52% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 24% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 6.6 yards per attempt vs Mason Rudolph 6.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −44% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect +10%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 35%, fair odds +187 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.49 |
| Matchup | −0.05 |
| Weather | +0.03 |
| Coach / team | +0.05 |
| Rest / bye | −0.01 |
| Game time | −0.07 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.44 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 0.50 counts as 0.49. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 9% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +5% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +7%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 50% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 100% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 71% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +63% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CLE | 0 | 143 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NO | 0 | 101 | 36 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TB | 0 | 50 | 28 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | IND | 0 | 101 | 87 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CLE | 0 | 93 | 33 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CIN | 0 | 127 | 49 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NE | 0 | 43 | 34 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ATL | 0 | 46 | 27 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.