TE · MIA
Greg Dulcich
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 36.5 |
| Matchup | −1.8 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | +1.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −4.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 33.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 39.4 counts as 36.5. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: IND allows 5% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +16% in 2 without vs 18 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 19% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 20), he was 7% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Malik Willis 7.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −3% in 4 without vs 16 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −16% in 15 without vs 5 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team −10% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 8%, fair odds +1157 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.04 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.06 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 46% more than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.04. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: IND allows 35% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 18 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 20), he was 82% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Malik Willis 4.3 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −21%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games). Effect −6%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +0% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DET | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | NE | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 86 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | KC | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SF | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LV | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | NE | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.