RB · ARI
Tyler Allgeier
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 37.0 |
| Matchup | −3.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 32.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 37.7 counts as 37.0. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LA allows 10% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 27% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 9% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −13% in 12 without vs 22 with; already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. Lead running back: Jeremiyah Love (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +101% in 1074 games, scaled for his role: Jeremiyah Love takes 50% of the team's carries (typical: 54%); his own games: −25% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +11%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −2% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −6%. LA defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 12.1 |
| Matchup | +3.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −3.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 11.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 12.4 counts as 12.1. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LA allows 25% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 6% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (quarterback gap: Jacoby Brissett 6.4 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +19% in 12 without vs 22 with; already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +6%. Top targets: Michael Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Michael Wilson takes 26% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −65% in 25 without vs 9 with; already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −20%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −8% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. LA secondary: Jaylen Watson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylen Watson: his team −15% in 2 games without him vs 7 with, allows 7.1 yards per target (unit starters: 6.8)); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee); LA secondary: Kamren Curl (Questionable, toe), Trent McDuffie (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 5%, fair odds +2033 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.30 |
| Matchup | −0.11 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.07 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.06 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 23% more than average, so his raw 0.36 counts as 0.30. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LA allows 38% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 72% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −69% in 12 without vs 22 with; already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −35%. Lead running back: Jeremiyah Love (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +108% in 1074 games, scaled for his role: Jeremiyah Love takes 50% of the team's carries (typical: 54%); his own games: −31% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +11%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −28% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −15%. LA defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | SEA | 0 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DAL | 0 | 147 | 44 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | DEN | 0 | 19 | 30 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LA | 0 | 38 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DET | 0 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NYG | 0 | 42 | 7 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | SF | 0 | -1 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SEA | 0 | 10 | 9 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.