RB · MIN
Jordan Mason
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 41.5 |
| Matchup | +0.0 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | −3.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −6.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 30.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 41.8 counts as 41.5. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: GB allows 0% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −50% in 2 without vs 30 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 16% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kyler Murray is not expected to play (Out, hamstring) (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −14% in 9 without vs 23 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −5%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +79% in 17 without vs 15 with). Effect −14%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. GB defensive front: Zaire Franklin (Doubtful, shin) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zaire Franklin: his team −14% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, 6.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. Watch: GB defensive front: Lukas Van Ness (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 2.2 |
| Matchup | +0.1 |
| Weather | +0.0 |
| Coach / team | −0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 3.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 13% more than average, so his raw 2.5 counts as 2.2. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: GB allows 6% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +6% in 2 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 74% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kyler Murray is not expected to play (Out, hamstring) (quarterback gap: Kyler Murray 6.9 yards per attempt vs Carson Wentz 6.6, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −30% in 9 without vs 23 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −14%. Top targets: T.J. Hockenson (Out, wrist) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: T.J. Hockenson takes 21% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +150% in 13 without vs 19 with; already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect +94%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. GB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: GB secondary: Xavier McKinney (Questionable, foot), Javon Bullard (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 36%, fair odds +181 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.18 |
| Matchup | +0.07 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.03 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.36 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 20% more than average, so his raw 0.21 counts as 0.18. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: GB allows 37% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +79% in 2 without vs 30 with). Effect −0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 62% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 48% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kyler Murray is not expected to play (Out, hamstring) (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +125% in 9 without vs 23 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +34%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: +119% in 17 without vs 15 with). Effect −18%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. GB defensive front: Zaire Franklin (Doubtful, shin) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zaire Franklin: his team +0% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, 6.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Watch: GB defensive front: Lukas Van Ness (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | BUF | 0 | 35 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DET | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | IND | 0 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | GB | 0 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | GB | 0 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | NYG | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 | DAL | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | WAS | 0 | 52 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.