WR · ATL
Jahan Dotson
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 37.3 |
| Matchup | −4.9 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | −0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +5.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 40.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: KC allows 13% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +35% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 52% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Michael Penix Jr. 7.2 yards per attempt vs Cooper Rush 6.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +90% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −5%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −55% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect +13%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 13%, fair odds +680 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.13 |
| Matchup | −0.05 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.11 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.13. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: KC allows 41% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 49% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Michael Penix Jr. 4.0 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Cooper Rush 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +8%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −65% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect +18%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TB | 0 | 0 | 95 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SF | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 87 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NO | 0 | 0 | 54 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | GB | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.