TE · ARI
Trey McBride
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 69.5 |
| Matchup | −5.5 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −9.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 56.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 69.9 counts as 69.5. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LA allows 8% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 6% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 22 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (quarterback gap: Jacoby Brissett 6.4 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −29% in 6 without vs 28 with; already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −14%. Top targets: Michael Wilson (on injured reserve), Kendrick Bourne (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Michael Wilson takes 26% of the team's targets, Kendrick Bourne takes 14% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +3% in 27 without vs 7 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +6%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −8% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. LA secondary: Jaylen Watson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylen Watson: his team −15% in 2 games without him vs 7 with, allows 7.1 yards per target (unit starters: 6.8)); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee); LA secondary: Kamren Curl (Questionable, toe), Trent McDuffie (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 11%, fair odds +845 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.55 |
| Matchup | −0.25 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.03 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.16 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.09 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 0.56 counts as 0.55. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LA allows 46% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 72% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 22 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 10% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (quarterback gap: Jacoby Brissett 3.8 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 6 without vs 28 with; already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −41%. Top targets: Michael Wilson (on injured reserve), Kendrick Bourne (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Michael Wilson takes 26% of the team's targets, Kendrick Bourne takes 14% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −41% in 27 without vs 7 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −28% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −12%. LA secondary: Jaylen Watson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylen Watson: his team −12% in 2 games without him vs 7 with, allows 7.1 yards per target (unit starters: 6.8)); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee); LA secondary: Kamren Curl (Questionable, toe), Trent McDuffie (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 72 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 111 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LA | 0 | 0 | 53 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DET | 0 | 0 | 66 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | SF | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 41 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.