QB · SF
Brock Purdy
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 236.2 |
| Matchup | +2.0 |
| Weather | +5.4 |
| Coach / team | +1.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +9.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 252.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DAL allows 1% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −5% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide −5% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −2% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 88%, fair odds -734 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.98 |
| Matchup | +0.21 |
| Weather | +0.05 |
| Coach / team | −0.07 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.21 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.17 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 2.21 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 2.00 counts as 1.98. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DAL allows 11% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: +14% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 14% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide −8% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −27% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −8%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect −0%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 24.3 |
| Matchup | +10.3 |
| Weather | −0.4 |
| Coach / team | −1.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +4.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 38.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 24.7 counts as 24.3. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 43% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −46% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 19% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DAL defensive front: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Donovan Ezeiruaku: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.5)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 20%, fair odds +399 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.29 |
| Matchup | −0.06 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.23 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.29. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DAL allows 22% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +150% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DAL defensive front: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Donovan Ezeiruaku: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.5)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LV | 232 | 40 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 7 | ATL | 288 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | WAS | 264 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | SEA | 189 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DEN | 218 | 29 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ARI | 297 | 34 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 2 | MIA | 287 | 30 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LA | 205 | 29 | 0 | 3 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.