TE · NYG
Isaiah Likely
Next: Week 11, JAX at NYG, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 57.6 |
| Matchup | −14.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −3.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 38.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% more than average, so his raw 62.7 counts as 57.6. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 12% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jameis Winston 7.1 yards per attempt vs J.J. McCarthy 7.0, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +10% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect −2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −53% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect +12%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 45%, fair odds +124 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.58 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.06 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.51 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 18% more than average, so his raw 0.68 counts as 0.58. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 0% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 15% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jameis Winston 4.5 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs J.J. McCarthy 3.6, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +63% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect −8%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −65% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect +18%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −21% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −11%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 10 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 127 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 9 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 53 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NO | 0 | 0 | 99 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 94 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 66 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LA | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.