TE · DAL
Jake Ferguson
Not expected to play: Out, knee
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 15.4 |
| Matchup | +0.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 18.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 14.7 counts as 15.4. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: SF allows 2% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Schottenheimer's offense vs Morris's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 101 games since 2018, 5% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 34% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Dak Prescott 7.3 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −52% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +26% in 14 without vs 20 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. SF secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); SF secondary: Renardo Green (Questionable, back), Deommodore Lenoir (Questionable, foot).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 28%, fair odds +261 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.29 |
| Matchup | −0.04 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.31 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 30% more than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.29. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: SF allows 14% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Schottenheimer's offense vs Morris's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 29% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 101 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 48% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Dak Prescott 4.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +25% in 14 without vs 20 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. SF secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); SF secondary: Renardo Green (Questionable, back), Deommodore Lenoir (Questionable, foot).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | IND | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | GB | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | TB | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 43 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.