WR · TEN
Wan'Dale Robinson
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 40.3 |
| Matchup | +4.3 |
| Weather | +1.8 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | −3.7 |
| Game time | −1.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 40.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 40.6 counts as 40.3. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 11% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −22% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −8% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 17% below in 4 games. This player: 3% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 26 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Cam Ward 6.1 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +31% in 12 without vs 22 with). Effect −3%. Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +68% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +13%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 24%, fair odds +314 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.28 |
| Matchup | −0.07 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | +0.02 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.22 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 10% more than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.28. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −39% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +4%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +36% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 8% above in 4 games. This player: 97% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 26 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Cam Ward 3.0 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −19% in 12 without vs 22 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −35% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −5%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect +0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −21% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 57 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | IND | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 53 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BAL | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 57 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.