RB · NYJ
Breece Hall
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 67.2 |
| Matchup | −6.4 |
| Weather | −0.6 |
| Coach / team | +0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 61.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 65.7 counts as 67.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 9% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +12% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +53% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −16% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +3%. BUF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 21.4 |
| Matchup | +3.4 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 23.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 23.1 counts as 21.4. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 16% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −4% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +15% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 8% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Geno Smith 7.3 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −29% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +11%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 14 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −37% in 32 without vs 2 with). Effect −3%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −61% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 43%, fair odds +132 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.39 |
| Matchup | +0.09 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.54 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.39. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 23% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +107% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 8% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −13% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +7%. BUF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | KC | 0 | 61 | 26 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DET | 0 | 32 | 23 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | GB | 0 | 29 | 63 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | TEN | 0 | 102 | 16 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 | NE | 0 | 111 | 18 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 | NO | 0 | 54 | 9 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 | JAX | 0 | 23 | 14 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | MIA | 0 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.