QB · MIA
Malik Willis
Not expected to play: on injured reserve
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Passing yards
Boom or bust vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 160.5 |
| Matchup | +1.9 |
| Weather | +4.2 |
| Coach / team | +7.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −5.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +26.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 195.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 164.6 counts as 160.5. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: IND allows 1% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −49% in 2 without vs 16 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +4% in 1 without vs 17 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 19% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 18), he was 5% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −43% in 13 without vs 5 with). Effect +18%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team −10% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Boom or bust vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 67%, fair odds -202 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.67 |
| Matchup | +0.07 |
| Weather | +0.02 |
| Coach / team | −0.05 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.20 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.93 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 0.69 counts as 0.67. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: IND allows 11% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: −25% in 2 without vs 16 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 17 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 27% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 18), he was 4% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −45% in 13 without vs 5 with). Effect +21%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +78% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +5%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 25.4 |
| Matchup | +4.0 |
| Weather | +0.9 |
| Coach / team | +1.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +6.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 41.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 28.3 counts as 25.4. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: IND allows 16% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −69% in 2 without vs 16 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 17 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 73% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 18), he was 17% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +23% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. IND defensive front: Akeem Davis-Gaither (Out, knee), DeForest Buckner (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akeem Davis-Gaither: his team +36% in 1 games without him vs 8 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3); DeForest Buckner: his team +22% in 9 games without him vs 17 with, 4.1 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +23%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 22%, fair odds +347 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.28 |
| Matchup | −0.06 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.24 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 35% more than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.28. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: IND allows 22% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 16 with). Effect +3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 17 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 18), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +0% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. IND defensive front: Akeem Davis-Gaither (Out, knee), DeForest Buckner (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akeem Davis-Gaither: his team +9% in 1 games without him vs 8 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3); DeForest Buckner: his team −3% in 9 games without him vs 17 with, 4.1 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DET | 128 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | NE | 211 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYJ | 208 | 37 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CIN | 137 | 74 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | MIN | 85 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | KC | 210 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SF | 197 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LV | 220 | 39 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.