RB · LAC
Keaton Mitchell
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 23.2 |
| Matchup | −1.7 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | +0.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −4.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 15.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 22.9 counts as 23.2. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BAL allows 7% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −37% in 3 without vs 23 with). Effect −1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −21% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 41% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −5% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +0%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: −16% in 18 without vs 8 with). Effect −15%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. BAL defensive front: Tavius Robinson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Tavius Robinson: his team −14% in 10 games without him vs 16 with, 2.6 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.0)); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 13.6 |
| Matchup | −3.8 |
| Weather | +0.5 |
| Coach / team | +0.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 11.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 13.2 counts as 13.6. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BAL allows 28% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +10% in 3 without vs 23 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 48% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Justin Herbert 7.3 yards per attempt vs DJ Uiagalelei 6.2, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −62% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 14 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 24 without vs 2 with). Effect +5%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +22% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 14%, fair odds +602 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.10 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.12 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 23% more than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.10. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BAL allows 7% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 23 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 60% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 117% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +2%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: −56% in 18 without vs 8 with). Effect −7%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. BAL defensive front: Tavius Robinson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Tavius Robinson: his team −24% in 10 games without him vs 16 with, 2.6 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.0)); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −11%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | HOU | 0 | 33 | 34 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LA | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | KC | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DEN | 0 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | SEA | 0 | 39 | 24 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | BUF | 0 | 52 | -5 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LV | 0 | 24 | 15 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ARI | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.