WR · SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Next: Week 10, SEA at LV, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 107.0 |
| Matchup | +6.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −6.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −12.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 95.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 103.7 counts as 107.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LV allows 6% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Fleury's offense vs Leonard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 9% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Sam Darnold is not expected to play (Out, ribs) (quarterback gap: Sam Darnold 7.8 yards per attempt vs Drew Lock 6.4, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +10% in 3 without vs 31 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −7% in 15 without vs 19 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: Charles Cross (Out, ankle), Christian Haynes (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Charles Cross: his team −20% in 5 games without him vs 24 with; Christian Haynes: his team +5% in 20 games without him vs 9 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. LV secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 61%, fair odds -157 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.74 |
| Matchup | +0.17 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.86 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 0.75 counts as 0.74. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LV allows 22% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Fleury's offense vs Leonard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 9% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Sam Darnold is not expected to play (Out, ribs) (quarterback gap: Sam Darnold 5.5 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Drew Lock 3.9, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +70% in 3 without vs 31 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −37% in 15 without vs 19 with). Effect +3%. Offensive line: Charles Cross (Out, ankle), Christian Haynes (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Charles Cross: his team −9% in 5 games without him vs 24 with; Christian Haynes: his team −4% in 20 games without him vs 9 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. LV secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 118 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | KC | 0 | 13 | 150 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 134 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | SF | 0 | 16 | 102 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 76 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | WAS | 14 | 0 | 128 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 155 | 3 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.