WR · LAC
Quentin Johnston
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 44.0 |
| Matchup | +4.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +2.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −5.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +10.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 56.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 42.7 counts as 44.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BAL allows 11% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 20% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −46% in 26 without vs 8 with). Effect +15%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +22% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 38%, fair odds +163 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.24 |
| Matchup | −0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.11 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.39 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 0.27 counts as 0.24. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: BAL allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 60% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 53% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 26 without vs 8 with). Effect +33%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +100% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | HOU | 0 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LA | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | KC | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | SEA | 0 | -4 | 44 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LV | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 (playoffs) | NE | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.