TE · PIT
Darnell Washington
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 29.7 |
| Matchup | +8.1 |
| Weather | −1.0 |
| Coach / team | +1.0 |
| Rest / bye | +1.1 |
| Game time | −4.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 37.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 30.7 counts as 29.7. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 27% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +63% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −4%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −49% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 17% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 50% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 20% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 6.6 yards per attempt vs Mason Rudolph 6.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −21% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −30% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect +5%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 28%, fair odds +259 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.30 |
| Matchup | −0.13 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | −0.01 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.26 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 14% more than average, so his raw 0.34 counts as 0.30. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 43% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +7%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 50% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 100% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 26% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 4.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Mason Rudolph 3.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +59% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect +23%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 94 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NO | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TB | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | IND | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NE | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.