RB · CIN
Chase Brown
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 49.5 |
| Matchup | −7.0 |
| Weather | +0.3 |
| Coach / team | −1.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 43.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 50.6 counts as 49.5. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: PIT allows 14% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +10% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −19% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 8% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 17% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −5% in 10 without vs 24 with). Effect +0%. PIT defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 26.7 |
| Matchup | +7.2 |
| Weather | +0.7 |
| Coach / team | −1.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +4.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 37.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 27.7 counts as 26.7. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: PIT allows 27% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −37% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −14% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 5% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 33% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Joe Burrow 7.5 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −5% in 10 without vs 24 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −0% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −1%. PIT secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 8%, fair odds +1202 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.10 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.08 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 0.10 counts as 0.10. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: PIT allows 25% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +81% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 29% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 36% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 10 without vs 24 with). Effect +7%. PIT defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −3%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | ATL | 0 | 57 | 18 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TEN | 0 | 55 | 46 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | BAL | 0 | 39 | 19 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIA | 0 | 39 | 21 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | JAX | 0 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | PIT | 0 | 61 | 8 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | HOU | 0 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | TB | 0 | 56 | 22 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.