RB · JAX
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 34.3 |
| Matchup | +1.4 |
| Weather | −0.1 |
| Coach / team | +2.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 35.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 34.5 counts as 34.3. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TEN allows 4% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +54% in 1 without vs 26 with). Effect −0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 42% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 27), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +7% in 6 without vs 21 with). Effect −1%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +26% in 19 without vs 8 with). Effect −23%. Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team +23% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +7%. TEN defensive front: Anthony Hill (Out, neck), Jeffery Simmons (no longer on the roster), Cody Barton (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anthony Hill: no games without him to compare, league number used, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Jeffery Simmons: his team +6% in 3 games without him vs 22 with, 4.5 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Cody Barton: no games without him to compare, league number used, 4.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +15%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 6.8 |
| Matchup | +0.4 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | −0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 6.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 6.2 counts as 6.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TEN allows 6% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 26 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 32% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 0% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 27), he was 62% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Trevor Lawrence 7.4 yards per attempt vs Quinn Ewers 6.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −12% in 6 without vs 21 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −61% in 19 without vs 8 with). Effect +16%. Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team −1% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. TEN secondary: Amani Hooker (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Amani Hooker: his team +4% in 2 games without him vs 23 with, allows 9.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.6)); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 54%, fair odds -116 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.61 |
| Matchup | −0.06 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.04 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.10 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.12 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.53 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.56 counts as 0.61. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: TEN allows 9% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +143% in 1 without vs 26 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 30% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 27), he was 35% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +31% in 6 without vs 21 with). Effect −1%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: −13% in 19 without vs 8 with). Effect −16%. Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team +40% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +14%. TEN defensive front: Anthony Hill (Out, neck), Jeffery Simmons (no longer on the roster), Cody Barton (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anthony Hill: no games without him to compare, league number used, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Jeffery Simmons: his team +77% in 3 games without him vs 22 with, 4.5 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Cody Barton: no games without him to compare, league number used, 4.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +28%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | BAL | 0 | 19 | 13 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | IND | 0 | 41 | 17 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | HOU | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | PHI | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CIN | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NE | 0 | 37 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DEN | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CLE | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.