WR · HOU
Xavier Hutchinson
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 30.8 |
| Matchup | −0.4 |
| Weather | +0.6 |
| Coach / team | +0.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −4.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 29.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 32.3 counts as 30.8. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 1% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −24% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 15% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +119% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −14%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 45%, fair odds +124 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.40 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.08 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.42 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 28% more than average, so his raw 0.51 counts as 0.40. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CLE allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 6% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 50% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +34% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −5%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 29 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYG | 0 | 12 | 17 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 65 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | IND | 0 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.