TE · GB
Tucker Kraft
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 48.2 |
| Matchup | −4.2 |
| Weather | +0.8 |
| Coach / team | −0.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −6.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 35.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 51.5 counts as 48.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: MIN allows 9% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −23% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 2% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 25% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −4% in 23 without vs 11 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team −15% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. MIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee); MIN secondary: Josh Metellus (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 19%, fair odds +413 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.37 |
| Matchup | −0.16 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.19 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 36% more than average, so his raw 0.50 counts as 0.37. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: MIN allows 43% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +4% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 26% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +28% in 23 without vs 11 with). Effect −6%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +9%. MIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee); MIN secondary: Josh Metellus (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NE | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 53 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | DET | 0 | 0 | 48 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CHI | 0 | 2 | 64 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | TB | 0 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.