WR · IND
Josh Downs
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 37.8 |
| Matchup | −3.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 34.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: MIA allows 9% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 3% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Daniel Jones 6.8 yards per attempt vs Anthony Richardson 6.6, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +17% in 9 without vs 25 with). Effect −3%. Top targets: Keenan Allen (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Keenan Allen takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −9% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +15% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −27% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. MIA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 21%, fair odds +371 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.21 |
| Matchup | −0.04 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.19 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 23% less than average, so his raw 0.16 counts as 0.21. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIA allows 17% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 8% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Daniel Jones 3.4 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Anthony Richardson 3.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −57% in 9 without vs 25 with). Effect +14%. Top targets: Keenan Allen (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Keenan Allen takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +12% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +7% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −45% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. MIA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TEN | 0 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 47 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 77 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | KC | 0 | 0 | 72 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.