RB · TEN
Tyjae Spears
Injury report: Questionable, knee
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 12.9 |
| Matchup | −2.0 |
| Weather | −0.2 |
| Coach / team | +0.6 |
| Rest / bye | +0.3 |
| Game time | −1.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 9.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 12.6 counts as 12.9. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 15% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +73% in 4 without vs 27 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 10% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 16% above in 4 games. This player: 34% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 25 games in that window (of his last 31), he was 19% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +98% in 5 without vs 26 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, knee.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 20.6 |
| Matchup | +0.3 |
| Weather | +0.3 |
| Coach / team | +0.2 |
| Rest / bye | −2.3 |
| Game time | +2.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 20.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% less than average, so his raw 18.9 counts as 20.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −56% in 4 without vs 27 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 17% below in 4 games. This player: 18% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 25 games in that window (of his last 31), he was 12% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Cam Ward 6.1 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +67% in 5 without vs 26 with). Effect −2%. Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +33% in 25 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, knee.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 6%, fair odds +1473 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.07 |
| Matchup | −0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.04 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 13% less than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.07. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 27 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 8% above in 4 games. This player: 100% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 25 games in that window (of his last 31), he was 11% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +150% in 5 without vs 26 with). Effect −4%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −3%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, knee.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 6 | IND | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BAL | 0 | 7 | -1 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYG | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PHI | 0 | 41 | 29 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NYJ | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | JAX | 0 | 18 | 9 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | NO | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.