WR · BAL
Zay Flowers
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 65.0 |
| Matchup | +2.8 |
| Weather | +1.2 |
| Coach / team | −0.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −6.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −8.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 53.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 66.3 counts as 65.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 4% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −14% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −0% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 16% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Tyler Huntley 6.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −19% in 9 without vs 25 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −9%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +28% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −5%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 33%, fair odds +208 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.27 |
| Matchup | +0.11 |
| Weather | −0.02 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.06 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.34 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 0.28 counts as 0.27. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: LAC allows 39% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +150% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −6%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 14% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Tyler Huntley 3.5 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −16% in 9 without vs 25 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −8%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +79% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −9%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | JAX | 0 | 17 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 137 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | CLE | 0 | 1 | 66 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | ATL | 0 | 13 | 53 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 118 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DAL | 0 | 20 | 84 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | IND | 0 | 0 | 150 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.