TE · DET
Sam LaPorta
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 50.3 |
| Matchup | +1.9 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −8.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 44.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: TB allows 4% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 26% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. TB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 42%, fair odds +137 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.41 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.43 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.41. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: TB allows 7% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 16% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. TB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | MIN | 0 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | GB | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 88 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 84 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 52 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NO | 0 | 0 | 48 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.