TE · LV
Michael Mayer
Next: Week 10, SEA at LV, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 41.0 |
| Matchup | −5.7 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.4 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +6.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −10.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 31.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 42.8 counts as 41.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: SEA allows 14% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Kubiak's offense vs Macdonald's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 33), he was 25% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kirk Cousins is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (quarterback gap: Kirk Cousins 7.3 yards per attempt vs Fernando Mendoza 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −28% in 8 without vs 25 with; already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −20%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +101% in 6 without vs 27 with). Effect −13%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. SEA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 3%, fair odds +2978 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.05 |
| Matchup | −0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.02 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 15% more than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.05. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: SEA allows 33% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Kubiak's offense vs Macdonald's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 33), he was 74% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kirk Cousins is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (quarterback gap: Kirk Cousins 4.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Fernando Mendoza 3.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 8 without vs 25 with; already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −51%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 6 without vs 27 with). Effect −17%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. SEA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | SF | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 53 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | LA | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 95 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NE | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | KC | 0 | 0 | 82 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NO | 0 | 0 | 32 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.