WR · LA
Puka Nacua
Not expected to play: on injured reserve
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 116.5 |
| Matchup | −0.2 |
| Weather | +0.4 |
| Coach / team | −7.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +8.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 120.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 113.4 counts as 116.5. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: ARI allows 0% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +33% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −50% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −2% in 14 without vs 20 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team +16% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +5%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 81%, fair odds -429 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.76 |
| Matchup | +0.17 |
| Weather | −0.04 |
| Coach / team | −0.09 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.19 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.02 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 0.84 counts as 0.76. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 22% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +150% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −5%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 31% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +15% in 14 without vs 20 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team −14% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | WAS | 0 | 20 | 150 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 80 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | LV | 0 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BUF | 0 | 9 | 138 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PHI | 0 | 2 | 125 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | SF | 0 | 0 | 74 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 (playoffs) | SEA | 0 | 4 | 165 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.