QB · CAR
Bryce Young
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 243.6 |
| Matchup | +13.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −12.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −5.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 242.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 249.4 counts as 243.6. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: NO allows 5% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 15% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 25 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −7% in 16 without vs 18 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. NO secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 92%, fair odds -1153 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.79 |
| Matchup | +0.08 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.29 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.06 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.64 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 1.83 counts as 1.79. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NO allows 4% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 47% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 25 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −4% in 16 without vs 18 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect −0%. NO secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 13.6 |
| Matchup | +1.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −1.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 13.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% less than average, so his raw 12.7 counts as 13.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NO allows 12% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 17% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 25 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. NO defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 22%, fair odds +354 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.21 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.20 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% less than average, so his raw 0.19 counts as 0.21. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NO allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 25 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. NO defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DEN | 276 | 13 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 8 | GB | 209 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TB | 163 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | PHI | 281 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DET | 329 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CLE | 291 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | ATL | 287 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CHI | 361 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.