QB · HOU
C.J. Stroud
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 268.4 |
| Matchup | −9.3 |
| Weather | +1.2 |
| Coach / team | +2.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −8.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 252.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 270.4 counts as 268.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CLE allows 3% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +2% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: +3% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 93%, fair odds -1245 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 2.77 |
| Matchup | −0.20 |
| Weather | +0.04 |
| Coach / team | −0.18 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.08 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.11 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 2.63 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CLE allows 7% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −27% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 11% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −33% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +5%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 11.6 |
| Matchup | −1.1 |
| Weather | −0.0 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 9.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 11.2 counts as 11.6. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CLE allows 9% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +6% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 4% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 10% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. CLE defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 15%, fair odds +557 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.11 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.13 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 16% more than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.11. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 6% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 79% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LAC | 384 | 20 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYG | 153 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 6 | JAX | 312 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 5 | TEN | 261 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DAL | 347 | 12 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | IND | 167 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CIN | 353 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | BUF | 274 | 15 | 0 | 2 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.