WR · NYG
Malik Nabers
Next: Week 11, JAX at NYG, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 75.6 |
| Matchup | +8.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −1.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +7.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | −10.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 78.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 79.1 counts as 75.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 11% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 28), he was 12% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jameis Winston 7.1 yards per attempt vs J.J. McCarthy 7.0, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +1% in 14 without vs 14 with). Effect −0%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +2% in 19 without vs 9 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 15%, fair odds +578 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.23 |
| Matchup | −0.06 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.06 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.16 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 14% more than average, so his raw 0.26 counts as 0.23. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 28), he was 40% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jameis Winston 4.5 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs J.J. McCarthy 3.6, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +17% in 14 without vs 14 with). Effect −4%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +106% in 19 without vs 9 with). Effect −23%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −21% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 10 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 9 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 111 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NO | 0 | 0 | 165 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 121 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 112 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.