RB · TB
Bucky Irving
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 104.7 |
| Matchup | −13.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.2 |
| Rest / bye | +11.6 |
| Game time | −4.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 101.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 107.3 counts as 104.7. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: DET allows 13% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 28% above in 2 games. This player: 15% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 7% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +32% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DET defensive front: Jack Campbell (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jack Campbell: his team −30% in 1 games without him vs 24 with, 9.4 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 11.1 |
| Matchup | −0.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.2 |
| Rest / bye | +0.2 |
| Game time | +0.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 11.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 11.9 counts as 11.1. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: DET allows 5% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% above in 2 games. This player: 169% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Baker Mayfield 7.3 yards per attempt vs Jalon Daniels 5.8, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +7%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −4% in 19 without vs 15 with). Effect −0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 53%, fair odds -112 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.86 |
| Matchup | −0.15 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | +0.02 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.05 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.81 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% more than average, so his raw 0.96 counts as 0.86. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DET allows 17% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% below in 2 games. This player: 62% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 1% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −12% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DET defensive front: Jack Campbell (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jack Campbell: his team −100% in 1 games without him vs 24 with, 9.4 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CHI | 0 | 97 | 28 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 8 | ATL | 0 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CAR | 0 | 106 | 4 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 6 | PIT | 0 | 46 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DAL | 0 | 165 | 10 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | GB | 0 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIN | 0 | 46 | 12 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CLE | 0 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.