RB · DET
Sione Vaki
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 14.7 |
| Matchup | −2.5 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 15.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 15.6 counts as 14.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TB allows 17% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 20% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 77% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. TB defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 5.8 |
| Matchup | −0.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 7.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 5.7 counts as 5.8. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: TB allows 5% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 60% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 6 without vs 19 with). Effect +9%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. TB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 3%, fair odds +3300 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.00 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: TB allows 38% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 16% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. No games in that window among his last 25, so no adjustment.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. TB defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | MIA | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | MIN | 0 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | GB | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | ARI | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYJ | 0 | 26 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BUF | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NO | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.