RB · GB
MarShawn Lloyd
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 9 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 17.1 |
| Matchup | +1.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | +5.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 25.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 16.7 counts as 17.1. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIN allows 7% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 12% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −28% in 1 without vs 8 with). Effect +0%. Lead running back: Josh Jacobs (Out, finger) not expected to play (league-wide +101% in 1074 games, scaled for his role: Josh Jacobs takes 53% of the team's carries (typical: 54%); his own games: +42% in 6 without vs 3 with; already the case in 6 of his last 9 games). Effect +17%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team +3% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 9 games). Effect +2%. MIN defensive front: Blake Cashman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Blake Cashman: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 21 with, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.6)); already the case in 0 of his last 9 games). Effect +8%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 9 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 10.2 |
| Matchup | −2.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 9.8 counts as 10.2. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIN allows 20% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 2% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 39% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (quarterback gap: Jordan Love 7.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 8 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 8 with). Effect −0%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team −15% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 9 games). Effect −3%. MIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee); MIN secondary: Josh Metellus (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 9 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 29%, fair odds +240 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.32 |
| Matchup | −0.05 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.13 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.43 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.32. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIN allows 17% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 125% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 8 with). Effect +3%. Lead running back: Josh Jacobs (Out, finger) not expected to play (league-wide +108% in 1074 games, scaled for his role: Josh Jacobs takes 53% of the team's carries (typical: 54%); already the case in 6 of his last 9 games). Effect +21%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 9 games). Effect +9%. MIN defensive front: Blake Cashman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Blake Cashman: his team +19% in 4 games without him vs 21 with, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.6)); already the case in 0 of his last 9 games). Effect +11%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CAR | 0 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | DET | 0 | 20 | 15 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | DAL | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CHI | 0 | 31 | 6 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | TB | 0 | 13 | 36 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ATL | 0 | 11 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NYJ | 0 | 20 | 6 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | MIN | 0 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.