QB · NE
Drake Maye
Next: Week 12, NE at LAC, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 259.2 |
| Matchup | −2.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +2.0 |
| Rest / bye | −12.0 |
| Game time | +26.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +13.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 286.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 256.8 counts as 259.2. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 1% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 5% below in 5 games. This player: 3% below his average in 3 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 22% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 15 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: +13% in 33 without vs 1 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +11% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 79%, fair odds -368 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 2.08 |
| Matchup | +0.09 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.10 |
| Rest / bye | −0.40 |
| Game time | −0.18 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.20 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.89 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 2.20 counts as 2.08. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 4% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 8% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 25% below in 5 games. This player: 29% below his average in 3 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 18% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 15 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: +34% in 33 without vs 1 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +27% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +7%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 25.0 |
| Matchup | −4.5 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.2 |
| Rest / bye | +2.5 |
| Game time | −0.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 22.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 23.4 counts as 25.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 18% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 10% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 15% above in 5 games. This player: 9% above his average in 3 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team −25% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −6%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 26%, fair odds +288 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.20 |
| Matchup | +0.05 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.24 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 25% more than average, so his raw 0.25 counts as 0.20. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LAC allows 24% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 18% below in 5 games. This player: 261% above his average in 3 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 59% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +33% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +9%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | GB | 299 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 8 | MIA | 199 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CHI | 321 | 26 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NYJ | 235 | 24 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 5 | LV | 374 | 25 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BUF | 269 | 54 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 3 | JAX | 199 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PIT | 208 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.