RB · BUF
Ray Davis
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 16.2 |
| Matchup | +1.8 |
| Weather | −5.0 |
| Coach / team | +1.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 13.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 17.2 counts as 16.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 11% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +150% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −12%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +150% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect −18%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 83% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 19% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +150% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team +25% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +7%. NYJ defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: NYJ defensive front: Harrison Phillips (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 7.7 |
| Matchup | −0.5 |
| Weather | −1.1 |
| Coach / team | +0.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 2.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 7.8 counts as 7.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 6% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +48% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −4%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +102% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect −12%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 50% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Josh Allen 7.9 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +102% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 29 without vs 5 with). Effect −35%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team −12% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. NYJ secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: NYJ secondary: Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 3%, fair odds +2758 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.02 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.02 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 60% more than average, so his raw 0.04 counts as 0.02. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 22% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +95% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −7%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +98% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect −12%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 76% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 63% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +150% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team +1% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. NYJ defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: NYJ defensive front: Harrison Phillips (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | MIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | BAL | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LV | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | LA | 0 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NE | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | HOU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 (playoffs) | DEN | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.