WR · NYJ
Adonai Mitchell
Injury report: Questionable, knee
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 35.2 |
| Matchup | −0.1 |
| Weather | +1.4 |
| Coach / team | +0.4 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −9.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 30.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 36.3 counts as 35.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 0% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −59% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 26 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 10% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Geno Smith 7.3 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +36% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect −8%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 14 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +15% in 32 without vs 2 with). Effect −12%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −61% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, knee; Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Omar Cooper Jr. is listed Questionable, ankle; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 21%, fair odds +367 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.17 |
| Matchup | +0.05 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.09 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.20 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% more than average, so his raw 0.19 counts as 0.17. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 31% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 26 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 31% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Geno Smith 4.1 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +150% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect −30%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 14 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games). Effect −8%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −86% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, knee; Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Omar Cooper Jr. is listed Questionable, ankle; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LV | 0 | 0 | 142 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | GB | 0 | 0 | 63 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 60 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | NE | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | NO | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.