WR · JAX
Brian Thomas Jr.
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 12.4 |
| Matchup | +2.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −1.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 11.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: TEN allows 19% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 32% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 0% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 22 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 21 without vs 13 with). Effect −17%. Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team −1% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. TEN secondary: Amani Hooker (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Amani Hooker: his team +4% in 2 games without him vs 23 with, allows 9.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.6)); already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 32%, fair odds +217 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.26 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.06 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.31 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 0.25 counts as 0.26. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: TEN allows 1% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 30% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 22 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 31% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +46% in 21 without vs 13 with). Effect −6%. Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team +40% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect +14%. TEN secondary: Amani Hooker (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Amani Hooker: his team +5% in 2 games without him vs 23 with, allows 9.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.6)); already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | IND | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NE | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 (playoffs) | BUF | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.