WR · KC
Xavier Worthy
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 36.1 |
| Matchup | +1.7 |
| Weather | −0.0 |
| Coach / team | −1.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −5.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 30.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 35.4 counts as 36.1. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 5% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −30% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +54% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 13% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Patrick Mahomes 7.2 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −60% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +36% in 21 without vs 13 with). Effect −9%. Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −24% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 5%, fair odds +1760 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.07 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.04 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.07. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +66% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +110% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 18% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Patrick Mahomes 4.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +5%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 21 without vs 13 with). Effect −25%. Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −49% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −11%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 48 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 73 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | LV | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | IND | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.