WR · BUF
Keon Coleman
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 31.8 |
| Matchup | −3.4 |
| Weather | +1.2 |
| Coach / team | +2.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 32.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 32.3 counts as 31.8. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 11% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +3% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −54% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 12% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Josh Allen 7.9 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +16% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −5% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team −12% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. NYJ secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: NYJ secondary: Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 27%, fair odds +270 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.38 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.04 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.07 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.12 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.25 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +77% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect −4%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 6 without vs 28 with). Effect +5%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 76% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 28% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Josh Allen 5.4 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect −33%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team +1% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. NYJ secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: NYJ secondary: Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LV | 0 | 0 | 59 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | LA | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NE | 0 | 0 | 116 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DET | 0 | 0 | 63 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.