WR · LAC
Ladd McConkey
Injury report: Questionable, back
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 50.9 |
| Matchup | +5.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +3.4 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +4.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −5.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 58.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 46.8 counts as 50.9. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: BAL allows 11% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 14% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +27% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect −14%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +22% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, back.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 10%, fair odds +909 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.15 |
| Matchup | −0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.08 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 17% more than average, so his raw 0.18 counts as 0.15. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BAL allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 60% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 30% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 25 without vs 9 with). Effect −39%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +100% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, back.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | LA | 0 | 0 | 86 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | KC | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 66 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LV | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 82 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 (playoffs) | NE | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.