QB · ATL
Michael Penix Jr.
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 182.3 |
| Matchup | −5.9 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −2.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 175.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 183.6 counts as 182.3. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: KC allows 3% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 21), he was 1% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 71%, fair odds -248 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.36 |
| Matchup | −0.33 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.10 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.15 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 1.31 counts as 1.36. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: KC allows 24% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 0% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 21), he was 17% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 7.6 |
| Matchup | −0.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% more than average, so his raw 8.4 counts as 7.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: KC allows 1% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 21), he was 19% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. KC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 2%, fair odds +4432 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.00 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 56% more than average, so his raw 0.00 counts as 0.00. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: KC allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 21), he was 91% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −3%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CIN | 162 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TB | 125 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SF | 213 | -1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | CHI | 225 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BAL | 240 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NO | 223 | -2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | GB | 256 | -2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 11 | CAR | 175 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.