RB · LV
Ashton Jeanty
Next: Week 10, SEA at LV, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 51.1 |
| Matchup | −7.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +4.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 50.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 48.9 counts as 51.1. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: SEA allows 15% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Kubiak's offense vs Macdonald's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 17% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kirk Cousins is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +24% in 2 without vs 24 with; already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +7%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. SEA defensive front: Leonard Williams (Out, stinger) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Leonard Williams: his team −46% in 1 games without him vs 28 with, 3.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 35.2 |
| Matchup | −3.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −7.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 27.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 36.8 counts as 35.2. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: SEA allows 9% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Kubiak's offense vs Macdonald's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 12% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kirk Cousins is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (quarterback gap: Kirk Cousins 7.3 yards per attempt vs Fernando Mendoza 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 24 with; already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −25%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −23% in 7 without vs 19 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. SEA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 33%, fair odds +206 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.45 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.10 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.14 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.44 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 0.44 counts as 0.45. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: SEA allows 7% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Kubiak's offense vs Macdonald's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 36% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kirk Cousins is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 24 with; already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −28%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. SEA defensive front: Leonard Williams (Out, stinger) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Leonard Williams: his team −100% in 1 games without him vs 28 with, 3.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | SF | 0 | 25 | -5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | NYJ | 0 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | LA | 0 | 15 | 61 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | BUF | 0 | 22 | 36 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NE | 0 | 27 | 50 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | KC | 0 | 58 | 68 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NO | 0 | 56 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LAC | 0 | 48 | 15 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.