WR · TB
Emeka Egbuka
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 38.9 |
| Matchup | +2.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.8 |
| Rest / bye | +0.9 |
| Game time | +0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 42.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 38.2 counts as 38.9. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: DET allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% above in 2 games. This player: 142% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Baker Mayfield 7.3 yards per attempt vs Jalon Daniels 5.8, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −42% in 3 without vs 21 with). Effect +5%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +20% in 9 without vs 15 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 40%, fair odds +151 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.38 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | +0.01 |
| Game time | +0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.40 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% less than average, so his raw 0.34 counts as 0.38. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DET allows 9% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% below in 2 games. This player: 112% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 23% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Baker Mayfield 5.6 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Jalon Daniels 3.2, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +101% in 3 without vs 21 with). Effect −1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +5% in 9 without vs 15 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CHI | 0 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 48 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DAL | 0 | 14 | 38 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | GB | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 62 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CLE | 0 | -3 | 16 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 63 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.